The other day I made a post in which I questioned Darcy Burner’s conclusions about productivity. I had mentioned in my post that I had been thinking about this very subject recently. What I had not mentioned was that I had actually written a post but had held off posting it because I wanted to polish it up a bit. Since the cat is already out of the bag, I thought I would just go ahead and post it anyway:
Is Outsourcing The Real Threat?
I have been one of those folks very critical of the press coverage of technology outsourcing. I’m a logical person and most journalists just don’t make sense. In fact, most of those who are vocal opponents of outsourcing don’t make sense either. Don’t get me wrong though, I’m neither in favor of nor against technology outsourcing. It just is. I tend to be more harsh on those against outsourcing simply because 70% of their argument is some unrealistic expectation that the government or some other entity is going to spin back the clock and send them back to some pre-bubble-burst era where HTML programmers could command $50,000 a year.
I’ll share with you a surefire way to spot an article written by a complete moron. They’ll confuse tech workers with call center employees. Major, major portions of the “tech” jobs being outsourced aren’t even tech jobs. Someone who reads prompts off a screen is not a tech worker. Again, don’t get me wrong, I don’t mean to downplay call center workers but a call center employee can go from answering tech support phone calls at Dell to answering phones at a non-tech company with little change in wage because their specialty is not technology but phone support. It’s like saying that some guy working in the mailroom at a dotcom is a tech worker. He may happen to work at a tech company but if his job is outsourced to India it doesn’t mean that a tech job was outsourced.
Now the real issue I wanted to post about was whether or not outsourcing even matters.
Six years ago someone who could “code” HTML was like a rock star. Today, they’re teaching HTML in grade school. For the “real” programmers out there, I have the following question:
If the latest version of MS Visual Studio increases your productivity by 10% have they not done the same thing as shipping 10% of tech jobs overseas? I think Gartner predicted that 10% of tech jobs would be shipped overseas by 2006 but Microsoft plans on releasing a new version of MS Visual Studio soon that, they claim, makes programmers more efficient. If Microsoft even claims productivity boost of as little as 10% haven’t they reduced the labor market’s need for programmers?
The fact of the matter is that writing some simple if/then statements is no longer a high paid skill. Microsoft and a whole host of other companies are striving to make the more repetitive parts of programming obsolete. Granted, we’re not there today but I’m predicting that we’re not too far off from when better tools will eliminate more tech jobs than jobs being outsourced.
I’m sure some will cite the fact that work always seems to increase to the level of absorbing any excess labor but if that were that actually true then those who argue against jobs going to India or China would have to admit the flaw in their own reasoning. If the amount of labor worldwide has increased then American companies would simply increase the amount of development work. Ahhhh . . . but that’s not true and they have been somewhat fond of keeping the labor activity constant (or lowering the amount of work) while seeking out lower cost alternatives.
The bottom line is that common programming tasks and many other tech jobs are becoming obsolete. Those who are fighting the outsourcing trend are so blinded that they don’t realize that the very people supplying him/her with their tools are the same people who are striving to make programming so simple that any idiot can do their job after reading a “Learn How To Program ________ in 24 Hours.”
The best way to guarantee a good job is not to legislate away competition or to join a union; you have to provide some increased level of value. If most people took a step back and looked at it objectively they would see that many skills are likely to become obsolete regardless of whether or not it’s via outsourcing or advances in technology. Instead of pouring their efforts into slowing down the inevitable they should be using their energy to become more competitive. Sometimes that may be learning new tech skills. Sometimes that may mean that they leave the field altogether. Regardless, the only way you can make rational decisions is to view the big picture. Getting caught up in whether or not you think it’s fair is as pointless as trying to rationalize with a shark why he shouldn’t eat you.
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Hi, my name is Bill Rini and this is my poker blog. I've been blogging about poker and the poker industry since around 2003-ish. Like most people I started out playing poker as entertainment in home games whenever we wanted to sit around and smoke cigars, drink beer, and eat pizza, and needed a good excuse. I started playing online shortly after the first online card rooms opened and it wasn't long before I was playing 20, 30, or even 40 hours a week or more. One day I received a phone call about a program manager position at Tiltware which was the company that consulted to Full Tilt Poker on software development and marketing. After Tiltware I spent about 2.5 years working at Party Poker where I was the poker room manager.
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
first, let me mention that writing HTML isn’t programming. HTML is a markup language, not a programming language. nobody is capable of writing an HTML program, because HTML programs don’t exist. every time someone writes “HTML programmer,” they are spreading untruth.
second, i was going to disagree with your posts regarding outsourcing. while you make several points that i don’t agree with, i think the spirit (rather than the letter) of what you’ve wrote is true. so thanks for the good read. “Six Rules For Contractors” is also helpful.
i have to say that your credibility is diminished by all the posts on gambling though.
To your first point, I would agree. I have always hated the term HTML programmer as it implies that the person knows how to program. In many of the organizations I’ve managed I attempted to structure the dept so that actual software engineers reported to me and HTML “programmers” reported to the graphic design head. I have nothing against HTML programmers but the term programmer causes others (i.e. CEO’s and other non-tech executives) to think that they’re technical staff but they are usually more visual people who belong with the graphic design and creative teams.
On your point about gambling, it’s my hobby much in the same way that people play golf or collect stamps. Technically, yes, it is gambling because there is an element of “luck” involved but poker is a skill game. It’s a game of odds and you play hands based on the expected value of your move. I think it’s best summed up in Matt Damon’s character, Mike McDermott’s quote from the movie Rounders:
Why do you think the same 5 guys are at the finals of the world series of poker EVERY year? They’re the luckiest guys in Vegas?
I find that it sharpens the mind because you have to size up situations on the fly and you’re forced to make decisions based on incomplete data. The better you can become at that, the better you do in poker and, IMHO, the better you do in many life and business situations.