“Ask a newer player if he’ll take an even money bet where he pays $500 to flip a coin and if he calls heads or tails correctly he wins $1000. Sadly, many will refuse that bet because they don’t understand probability or odds. Yet, armed with a determined reading of their favorite beginner poker book they charge out to the tables and quickly surrender their money to better players while taking odds far worse than even money.”

I know few people who would take the above even money bet because it has no utility. But I know lots of people who will gamble for less than even money because their utility function values entertainment.

We know empircally that few poker players are really interested in learning probability theory and calculating odds. The economic value of winning more often is simply less than the psychological cost of having to learn probability theory.

Put another way, most people would prefer to learn probability theory at a low stakes table than from a book. If you understand their utility function, then you understand that their behavior is rational. More to the point, you can better profit from this knowledge by playing against them than by trying to sell them another tutorial they don’t want to read.

Eric

I would agree with you on the general sense but the people who frequent the 2+2 message boards are trying to become better. They are there asking for help so as to better understand the game. For the average guy who just wants to kill 3 or 4 hours flinging chips with the guys, you’re right but I was trying to make the case for a player who is specifically interested in becoming a winning poker player.

My thinking was that for those types of people the current presentation of information might not be optimal in terms of getting them from point A on the skill scale to point B. Most books either give a very high-level overview of the necessary information or drill down into so much detail as to overwhelm. I think that is evidenced by the fact that though someone who has read Sklanksy might have better starting hand requirements than someone who has never read a poker book, they still make the same chasing, not protecting their weak hands, and other common mistakes associated with fishy players. Those folks either continue to remain fishy and learn through experience (which can often take years), they seek out advice from places like 2+2 or RGP, or they simply remain fish.

Providing a structured way for them to learn how to avoid making the fishy mistakes first and then introducing them to the fundamentals is, IMHO, a more effective teaching technique.

I was just checking out various blogging sites and found this gem. I agree with much of what you’ve written. I was wondering, what logic books would you recommend someone start? I plan on ordering a bunch of books for christmas presents and other in a few days, and would like to add a good logic book.

Cheers,

Mike

PS. time to attack your archives

None of the mentioned books is specific to poker or gambling (though they do dabble on the subject). In fact, both authors tend to spend a lot of time talking about economic and political decisions. Personally, I enjoy the study of both economics and politics so the fact that they aren’t gambling specific isn’t an issue for me.

But I agree that a greater understanding of repeatable game theory would do wonders for most people.