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	<title>Comments on: Math Wiz</title>
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	<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/</link>
	<description>Bill Rini's Poker Weblog</description>
	<pubDate>Sat,  6 Sep 2008 07:17:56 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: ben</title>
		<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/#comment-2192</link>
		<dc:creator>ben</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jun 2005 01:10:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billrini.com/?p=250#comment-2192</guid>
		<description>can u help me calculate the following probabilities/odds -- everyone keeps giving me different figures!I am planning a lotto draw for charity. To make it simple , I plan to involve only 1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/0 ;no repeat set ; must be in correct order of draw -- ie 3/6 is different from 6/3

 

The house will draw 5 sets of 2 numbers --- eg  1/2  3/6  2/0 /4/9   6/6  9/8

 

Players must choose 5 sets of numbers ---- 
 

What are odds and probability that out of the 5 sets of number chosen, the player will get 

 

1 out of 5 drawn by the house ( 1 in ?????)

2  " " " "

3 " " " "

4 " " " "

5 " " " "

Pse revert ; thks</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>can u help me calculate the following probabilities/odds &#8212; everyone keeps giving me different figures!I am planning a lotto draw for charity. To make it simple , I plan to involve only 1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/0 ;no repeat set ; must be in correct order of draw &#8212; ie 3/6 is different from 6/3</p>
<p>The house will draw 5 sets of 2 numbers &#8212; eg  1/2  3/6  2/0 /4/9   6/6  9/8</p>
<p>Players must choose 5 sets of numbers &#8212;- </p>
<p>What are odds and probability that out of the 5 sets of number chosen, the player will get </p>
<p>1 out of 5 drawn by the house ( 1 in ?????)</p>
<p>2  &#8221; &#8221; &#8221; &#8221;</p>
<p>3 &#8221; &#8221; &#8221; &#8221;</p>
<p>4 &#8221; &#8221; &#8221; &#8221;</p>
<p>5 &#8221; &#8221; &#8221; &#8221;</p>
<p>Pse revert ; thks</p>
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		<title>By: BadBlood</title>
		<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/#comment-445</link>
		<dc:creator>BadBlood</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 1969 16:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billrini.com/?p=250#comment-445</guid>
		<description>*cough* "47 minus 9 is 36" *cough*  May want to check that one :)

Good post Bill.  I think where most people end up getting more confused is calculating odds of an event happening before the river with 2 cards to come.

Taking the flush draw example, the odds of making your flush by the river is (1 - odds of not making flush).

1 - (38/47)*(37/46)

I know you know all this, just a primer for the readers :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>*cough* &#8220;47 minus 9 is 36&#8243; *cough*  May want to check that one <img src='http://www.billrini.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /><br />
Good post Bill.  I think where most people end up getting more confused is calculating odds of an event happening before the river with 2 cards to come.</p>
<p>Taking the flush draw example, the odds of making your flush by the river is (1 - odds of not making flush).</p>
<p>1 - (38/47)*(37/46)</p>
<p>I know you know all this, just a primer for the readers <img src='http://www.billrini.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /></p>
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		<title>By: StudioGlyphic</title>
		<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/#comment-446</link>
		<dc:creator>StudioGlyphic</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 1969 16:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billrini.com/?p=250#comment-446</guid>
		<description>Is there a compelling reason for someone to calculate the odds of making their hand on the turn or river? The only thing I can think of is where the other guy is all in, and his stack is slightly smaller than the pot.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is there a compelling reason for someone to calculate the odds of making their hand on the turn or river? The only thing I can think of is where the other guy is all in, and his stack is slightly smaller than the pot.</p>
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		<title>By: dmmikkel</title>
		<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/#comment-447</link>
		<dc:creator>dmmikkel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 1969 16:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billrini.com/?p=250#comment-447</guid>
		<description>Is it the old woman from WPT season 1 party poker million?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is it the old woman from WPT season 1 party poker million?</p>
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		<title>By: Richard Brodie</title>
		<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/#comment-448</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Brodie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 1969 16:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billrini.com/?p=250#comment-448</guid>
		<description>The quote is from Maureen Feduniak.

QL</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The quote is from Maureen Feduniak.</p>
<p>QL</p>
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		<title>By: Bill Rini</title>
		<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/#comment-449</link>
		<dc:creator>Bill Rini</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 1969 16:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billrini.com/?p=250#comment-449</guid>
		<description>BB,

In keeping with the rule of thumb theme, just divide by two.  If you're on a flush draw and plan on going to the river, your 4.1:1 odds are now approx. 2:1 (1.9:1 is the more exact answer).  

Again, the whole idea is to make this simple to do in your head.  I don't think anybody is going to make or break their bankroll on the difference between 2 and 1.9.  What you're looking for is some quick math you can do on the spot.  So you might say "Well, I've got 9 outs, minus 47 remaining cards, divided by 9, is about 4:1.  I plan on going to the river so that's more like 2:1."  That puts you into the ballpark with very little mental work.  

Bill</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BB,</p>
<p>In keeping with the rule of thumb theme, just divide by two.  If you&#8217;re on a flush draw and plan on going to the river, your 4.1:1 odds are now approx. 2:1 (1.9:1 is the more exact answer).  </p>
<p>Again, the whole idea is to make this simple to do in your head.  I don&#8217;t think anybody is going to make or break their bankroll on the difference between 2 and 1.9.  What you&#8217;re looking for is some quick math you can do on the spot.  So you might say &#8220;Well, I&#8217;ve got 9 outs, minus 47 remaining cards, divided by 9, is about 4:1.  I plan on going to the river so that&#8217;s more like 2:1.&#8221;  That puts you into the ballpark with very little mental work.  </p>
<p>Bill</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Bill Rini</title>
		<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/#comment-450</link>
		<dc:creator>Bill Rini</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 1969 16:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billrini.com/?p=250#comment-450</guid>
		<description>StudioGlyphic,

Let's pretend that everybody doesn't play NL :-)

You often need to know the odds in NL so you can destroy somebody's odds of drawing.  Let's say you and your opponent are deep stacked, you flop top pair with top kicker but there's two suited cards.  You want to destroy the pot odds for anybody who's thinking about trying to draw out cheap.  Let's say you bet $10 and get a caller.  Both blinds fold so there's $25 in the pot ($2/$3 blinds).  A pot sized bet makes it $50 in the pot and it costs $25 to call which offers your opponent 2:1 odds (ignoring implied odds) which is insufficient to draw to a flush.  Now, he may still chase after his flush but he's not getting the proper odds to do so (again, implied odds aren't being considered here).  Though you might eventually lose the hand you should make every attempt to punish him on the turn by making the odds inappropriate for his draw on the turn as well.  It's poker so he could spike his miracle card on the river but if that guy routinely chases 4:1 draws while only getting 2:1 pot odds, he's eventually going to go broke.  Unfortunately he may go broke long after he's busted you :-)

One of the biggest mistakes I see in newish NL players is not understanding how to use your betting to control the pot odds you're offering someone.  You'll see somebody open for $10 in $100 buy in NL and get 4 callers (yes, at Commerce this happens as you well know) and they flop top pair, top kicker and they throw out a $10 bet.  Well, that's 6:1 odds you're offering the next player (the odds get even better for each subsequent player).  What hand isn't worth drawing for at 6:1 odds?  Say everybody calls, the last guy is getting 10:1 odds!!!  You're just begging someone to draw out on you.  In fact, you're not just begging them, you're sending them a formal invitation by offering them such amazing pot odds that they can almost justify calling with any two overcards.  

Bill</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>StudioGlyphic,</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s pretend that everybody doesn&#8217;t play NL <img src='http://www.billrini.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /><br />
You often need to know the odds in NL so you can destroy somebody&#8217;s odds of drawing.  Let&#8217;s say you and your opponent are deep stacked, you flop top pair with top kicker but there&#8217;s two suited cards.  You want to destroy the pot odds for anybody who&#8217;s thinking about trying to draw out cheap.  Let&#8217;s say you bet $10 and get a caller.  Both blinds fold so there&#8217;s $25 in the pot ($2/$3 blinds).  A pot sized bet makes it $50 in the pot and it costs $25 to call which offers your opponent 2:1 odds (ignoring implied odds) which is insufficient to draw to a flush.  Now, he may still chase after his flush but he&#8217;s not getting the proper odds to do so (again, implied odds aren&#8217;t being considered here).  Though you might eventually lose the hand you should make every attempt to punish him on the turn by making the odds inappropriate for his draw on the turn as well.  It&#8217;s poker so he could spike his miracle card on the river but if that guy routinely chases 4:1 draws while only getting 2:1 pot odds, he&#8217;s eventually going to go broke.  Unfortunately he may go broke long after he&#8217;s busted you <img src='http://www.billrini.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /><br />
One of the biggest mistakes I see in newish NL players is not understanding how to use your betting to control the pot odds you&#8217;re offering someone.  You&#8217;ll see somebody open for $10 in $100 buy in NL and get 4 callers (yes, at Commerce this happens as you well know) and they flop top pair, top kicker and they throw out a $10 bet.  Well, that&#8217;s 6:1 odds you&#8217;re offering the next player (the odds get even better for each subsequent player).  What hand isn&#8217;t worth drawing for at 6:1 odds?  Say everybody calls, the last guy is getting 10:1 odds!!!  You&#8217;re just begging someone to draw out on you.  In fact, you&#8217;re not just begging them, you&#8217;re sending them a formal invitation by offering them such amazing pot odds that they can almost justify calling with any two overcards.  </p>
<p>Bill</p>
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		<title>By: StudioGlyphic</title>
		<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/#comment-451</link>
		<dc:creator>StudioGlyphic</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 1969 16:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billrini.com/?p=250#comment-451</guid>
		<description>Mmm... let me clarify using an analogy. :)

I have 9 outs for a flush. It's about 4:1 to get my flush on the turn, but it's 2:1 to get my flush on the turn or river.

So do I care about the latter number in situations where I'm not against 2 or more opponents who are all in (pot being significantly smaller) and I'm drawing to the nuts, or where the pot and the other guy's all-in gives me 2:1?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mmm&#8230; let me clarify using an analogy. <img src='http://www.billrini.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /><br />
I have 9 outs for a flush. It&#8217;s about 4:1 to get my flush on the turn, but it&#8217;s 2:1 to get my flush on the turn or river.</p>
<p>So do I care about the latter number in situations where I&#8217;m not against 2 or more opponents who are all in (pot being significantly smaller) and I&#8217;m drawing to the nuts, or where the pot and the other guy&#8217;s all-in gives me 2:1?</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Bill Rini</title>
		<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/#comment-452</link>
		<dc:creator>Bill Rini</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 1969 16:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billrini.com/?p=250#comment-452</guid>
		<description>Hey StudioGlyphic,

Actually, your clarification confused me even more :-)

Bill</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey StudioGlyphic,</p>
<p>Actually, your clarification confused me even more <img src='http://www.billrini.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /><br />
Bill</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: StudioGlyphic</title>
		<link>http://www.billrini.com/2005/03/21/math-wiz/#comment-453</link>
		<dc:creator>StudioGlyphic</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 1969 16:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billrini.com/?p=250#comment-453</guid>
		<description>Heh.

Basically, how useful is it to know the necessary pot odds when you have n outs twice? since you usually have to call a bet on the turn as well as the flop, it seems like unnecessary info unless someone's all in.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Heh.</p>
<p>Basically, how useful is it to know the necessary pot odds when you have n outs twice? since you usually have to call a bet on the turn as well as the flop, it seems like unnecessary info unless someone&#8217;s all in.</p>
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