The Death of Poker Media?
Jonas Odman, VP of Bodog Network and Anonymous Tables
Proof That Online Poker Is Rigged!
Zynga Ready for Real Money Gaming or Trying to Hide Failures?Here is my post in response to my previous challenge.
You’ve been folding every hand for the last three orbits. You’re getting ready to play any two paint cards from any position just to kill the boredom. You peek at the first card as it’s dealt to you and it’s and ace. “Great, here comes a deuce or seven,” you think to yourself. Instead, it’s another ace. Pocket aces!
And this is the point at which you get yourself in trouble.
The two most common reactions to finding pocket aces are:
Oh god, I never win with pocket aces.
Holy smokes! I’m going to win a huge pot!
But in reality, a single pair, even top pair, goes down in value in a multi-way pot.
The pessimist is afraid his aces won’t hold up and doesn’t act aggressively enough to push people out of the pot. He limps UTG or makes a min-raise and by the time it gets around to the blinds, the BB has pot odds to play nearly any two cards. The pessimist sees a possible straight or flush draw out there and figures he’s going to get drawn out on anyway so he just check-calls and gives his opponents cheap cards to draw out against him.
The optimist starts ramming and jamming pre-flop and doesn’t slow down until the showdown despite four limpers in front of him. Even when he gets check-raised on the turn, he refuses to believe his aces are no good and he three bets it trying to get as much money into the pot as possible. The true optimist goes for a check-raise on the river even after having been check-raised on the turn.
The solid player plays his hand one street at a time. He knows his pocket aces are the best hand pre-flop but he also realizes that his hand could turn into crap with a simple wave of the magic flop wand. If he’s holding two red aces and the flop comes all spades he remains aggressive until his opponent tells him that he’s beat. He keeps aware of his opponent’s actions and keeps himself out of trouble when he’s beat. He draws extra bets out of his opponents when he knows his hand is good.
Expecting nothing from a hand means that you have no preconceived notions about whether or not your two starting cards are going to win. Even if you have the nut flush, you recognize that the board pairing might have put your hand in jeopardy. If you play each street based on the moment rather than your expectations you extract the most money when you’re hand is best and lose the least when your hand is outdrawn.
Now let’s see your’s. :-)
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Hi, my name is Bill Rini and this is my poker blog. I've been blogging about poker and the poker industry since around 2003-ish. Like most people I started out playing poker as entertainment in home games whenever we wanted to sit around and smoke cigars, drink beer, and eat pizza, and needed a good excuse. I started playing online shortly after the first online card rooms opened and it wasn't long before I was playing 20, 30, or even 40 hours a week or more. One day I received a phone call about a program manager position at Tiltware which was the company that consulted to Full Tilt Poker on software development and marketing. After Tiltware I spent about 2.5 years working at Party Poker where I was the poker room manager.
{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }
You hit it 100%.
A typical thought process when holding AA…
newbie: I am invinsible, I will call the blind to slowplay them and when I get enough money in the pot I will push all in and they will never see it comming. (notice the disregard for what his opponents have)
newbie w/ a little experience: I will push all in with my aces here because I dont want anyone calling.
intermediate: I will raise three times the blind. AFter the flop I will reraise/bet hard to make people pay for their cards.
experienced: I will decide what to do when it is my turn based on the actions of everyone else at the table, the pot size, what my image at the table is, how many chips I have, and how many chips my opponents have.
Notice the big jump from intermediate to experienced. The experienced player assumes nothing until it is time to make an assumtion. They are watching, learning. When it is time to make a decision they make the current decision with all the knowledge they have at the moment. They dont make two or more decisions at once. The only thing they are concentrating on at this moment is what move to make right now.
http://www.gamblingblues.com/2006/02/expect-nothing-from-hand.html
There’s mine… enjoy.
Hey Bill,
I have my response up at Beer City Poker.
http://www.beercitypoker.blogspot.com
Good idea.
Mine is up, love the idea Bill.
“Expecting nothing from a hand . . .”
That’s a nice mantra. Once, in our home game, Buddy Steve limped with AA. He got three callers. Of course, one hit two pair and knocked Steve out. After listening to two minutes of bitching, I said, “Damn Steve, what did you expect, limping with Aces?” His response? “I expect to win every hand and for all of you to have to walk home naked.”
Now that’s an unrealistic expectation.
Nice post.
I always fold AA…no, great post, Bill..as I said below (I posted in the wrong area), it’s hard to let those AA go.
Mine is up at http://www.pokerstage.blogspot.com. I took the BG route.
My half-assed, fully drunken attempt at the theme can be found here:
http://donkeypuncher.blogspot.com/2006/02/expect-nothing-from-hand.html
Great idea Bill. As an extension of my writing, I’ve started a blog, and my first post is on your theme Here: http://suckoutartists.com/blogs/oz_blog/archive/2006/02/08/41.aspx
Great topic.
This is probably the single most important change in perspective that distinguishes those who are successful from those that fail.
In times of stress, people are chronically irrational; we access our primal gut instincts. This is particularly important in high-performance, high volatility games where fluctuations are a frequent aspect of the enterprise.
Smart decisions requires a kind intelligence that can realize and enforces its won limitations. Acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods to dealing with our ignorance is key.