Of course, everyone is giddy with excitement now that Barney Frank has declared his intention to have the law overturned. Being the glass half-full type of guy that I am, I’m waiting to see how this plays out before popping the champagne. Let’s just be honest for a second here folks; online gambling or gambling of any form is not an issue risk-averse politicians like to dirty their hands with unless there’s something in it for them. I’m not suggesting that about Frank but he’s got to convince a lot of other politicians to see his point of view and unless they see an upside in it for them then he’s going to be fighting a seriously uphill battle.

So let’s run through the most likely scenarios:

Frank has zero impact
Frank raises some awareness but can’t really get any support
Frank convinces Congress to study the issue
Frank convinces Congress to study the issue and put a temporary hold on implementing the UIGEA provisions
Frank completely overturns the UIGEA which leaves online gaming as quasi-legal for site operators
Frank not only overturns the UIGEA but gets a bill passed that legalizes and regulates online gaming.

Although these were listed in order of how many people would perceive them on a bad to good scale I actually don’t believe getting the UIGEA overturned with online gaming still being quasi-legal is as good as having the issue studied. Having the issue studied leaves things open to regulation and legalization. However if you just overturn the UIGEA all you have is the grey area everyone operated in pre-UIGEA but a lot more fear in the industry than before. Risk-averse entities like Harrah’s, television stations, internet sites, will still be a little leery of doing business with online gaming sites. Before the UIGEA everybody did business and since the government seemed to be turning a blind eye everybody else did as well.

So am I saying that we should be disappointed with Barney Frank’s support? No. What I’m saying is that Barney Frank’s support is like picking up AK in early position. It’s a good hand but it’s far from being a guaranteed winner.

Updates Emailed to You Hot Off the Press

{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

1 Short-Stacked Shamus April 3, 2007 at 6:30 am: Good points, Bill. I’d be very surprised if we see anything more than just a study (third on yr list) in the near future. (Of course, we could flop AAK, but whazzat, 1,000-to-1?)