Sklansky 404 Error Page

David Sklansky

Error 404: Page Not Found

Mathematically speaking, it would appear that you were a 2:1 favorite to find the page you were looking for. Your click was questionable though given the odds and the fact that any content on this site is likely to be crap anyway. I wouldn’t say that you’re a poor web surfer but I think it’s highly unlikely that you could be a long term winner at higher stakes web surfing.

Let’s say that you saw this link:

http://www.billrini.com

Now, the vast majority of the content on that site is pure crap. Given the crap multiplier effect you have:

10% chance of any useful content [the crap multiplier] X 66% chance of the link taking you to Bill’s Blog [the site is up, the internet is working correctly, etc.]

That gives you a 6.6% chance of the link working and taking you to something useful. Clearly a 6.6% chance of success makes a click on that link –EV.