Sklansky 404 Error Page
Mathematically speaking, it would appear that you were a 2:1 favorite to find the page you were looking for. Your click was questionable though given the odds and the fact that any content on this site is likely to be crap anyway. I wouldn’t say that you’re a poor web surfer but I think it’s highly unlikely that you could be a long term winner at higher stakes web surfing.
Let’s say that you saw this link:
http://www.billrini.com
Now, the vast majority of the content on that site is pure crap. Given the crap multiplier effect you have:
10% chance of any useful content [the crap multiplier] X 66% chance of the link taking you to Bill’s Blog [the site is up, the internet is working correctly, etc.]
That gives you a 6.6% chance of the link working and taking you to something useful. Clearly a 6.6% chance of success makes a click on that link –EV.
Hi, my name is Bill Rini and this is my poker blog. I've been blogging about poker and the poker industry since around 2003-ish. Like most people I started out playing poker as entertainment in home games whenever we wanted to sit around and smoke cigars, drink beer, and eat pizza, and needed a good excuse. I started playing online shortly after the first online card rooms opened and it wasn't long before I was playing 20, 30, or even 40 hours a week or more. One day I received a phone call about a program manager position at Tiltware which was the company that consulted to Full Tilt Poker on software development and marketing. After Tiltware I spent about 2.5 years working at Party Poker where I was the poker room manager.
