Random Thoughts On Calling The River

This is a post I recently made over at 2+2. I thought it might be of interest here as well.

I?ve read a few posts over the last few days regarding whether or not to call a bet on the river when you think you might be beat. Maybe through the magic of suggestive recall last night I happened to pay particular notice to some hands meeting the very same criteria. I have to admit that I?ve taken a whole new outlook on how to play this situation based on Ed ?Don?t fold for one bet? Miller?s posts here as well as after reading SSH but I thought that I might attempt to expand on the subject a bit further. I?m not pretending to be the expert on the subject but it seems a lot of people seemed to be having difficulty with this recently so I thought I would throw my thoughts out there and let people kick them (or perhaps even me) around.

Really, at the river there are only a few different situations you can be in. Generally they would fall into the following groupings:

1. You were ahead (or thought you were ahead) and then you get bet into or check-raised on the river with a seemingly safe card (e.g. it doesn?t make a straight or flush).
2. A scary card hits on the river and a caller becomes a bettor (or they check raise).
3. You were on a draw that missed and you have absolutely no hand.
4. You were on a draw that missed and you have top pair or better.
5. You were on a draw that missed and you have mediocre pair.

The first scenario is probably the scariest. I have seen people slow play pocket aces, sets, and all sorts of hands waiting to spring a raise on their opponent on the river. In fact, last night I made a jack high flush against another player who had been slow playing his pocket aces and he check-raised me on the river. I started running through all the hands he could have and reluctantly called expecting to see the A ? Q high flush. Instead he flips up two aces and then starts ranting about how he hates that hand because he always loses with it.

That was one of the lucky cases. Most of the time, you?re beat. Not only are you beat but you?ve been beat since the flop. They probably flopped a set or just called when QQx hit the board and they were holding a Q. As painful as it may seem you have to call this hand down. If you don?t call the river bet you?ll surely get pegged as someone who folds weak hands on the river and others will begin putting you to the test with bluffs. You?ll run into enough guys who slow played a pair of aces or some other hand that you can beat enough times that even when every bone in your body is telling you he?s got you beat, you should probably call anyway.

Despite the fact that the second scenario seems like the worst possible case, it?s probably not. While in many cases you will, in fact, be beat, a scary card hitting on the river will induce many aggressive players to bluff. They figure that the worst case scenario is that you?ll just call (they don?t think far enough ahead to consider the possible re-raise). In terms of percentages, because of the attractiveness of bluffing, on a percentage bases (times beat vs. times bluffed) you?re probably going to come out of this ahead far more often than if a blank hits and you get check-raised as in scenario one. Call it down and take your lumps.

Scenario three is probably the only time I would lay the hand down. You?ve missed your draw and you don?t even have a pair. You?re basically hoping that high card pulls the pot. That?s a low enough probability that you can lay this one down.

Scenario four is another one I encountered last night. I had been going for the nut straight, AQ, flop came AKJ and there was crazy betting between four players on the flop and turn and I was bet into on the river. I bit the bullet and called the bet on the river knowing someone had at least two pair but more likely had made their straight (turn and river where 98). I almost fell out of my chair when the chips moved in my direction and I took down a 20BB pot with a pair of aces. One player had aces with a weaker kicker, another had 79 and the last guy had Kx). In a big pot like this you have to knuckle down and make the call. I could make this play and be wrong 20 more times before I would approach break-even.

The last scenario is the only one I have trouble with and I try to judge my opponent before making a call. If he?s a solid player who seldom bluffs, I lay this down. This is especially true is he started out on the flop showing some aggression but then backed off when raised (i.e. Flop comes Kc Th 7c and you had Ac Tc and he bet out at you on the flop, you raised and he check-called you to the river). If he?s a habitual bluffer or my Spidy-Sense tells me he smelled my weakness with the check to him and he?s betting into me to get me to lay it down I might call if I think I have a good read on what hand he might have had.

Final Thoughts:

As Ed Miller points out both in his posts as well as in SSH, in big pots you should probably call even if you think you?re beat. In small pots, don?t waste another bet if you think you?re beat. If you call down a big pot you thought you were beat in and win one time in ten you?ll still make money. It?s a low percentage play (i.e. you?ll have the best hand only a small percentage of the time) but the payout in a large pot is big enough to make up for that one bet you put in to see the showdown all of the other times plus some.

Just think of the called bet on the river as a super-big blind. You have to pay it. :-)

Related posts:

1. Why I Don’t Talk About Hands When I’m Playing by Tommy Angelo I’ve made a new friend at Lucky Chances. His...
2. Stop “Protecting” Your Hands by Greg Walker “I raised pre with TT and this other guy...
3. Money Making Tip: Don’t Play Poker at the Grand Diamond Casino in Poipet Here’s a scary tale from a poker player here...
4. Low Ball Poker by Dave Editor’s Note: Dave has written some interesting stuff about low...
5. The first time I actually cried at the poker table – Where are all the women in poker? by Robyn G My husband was playing in a cash game at...

Site	Rackback	Sign Up Bonus	US
Absolute Poker	30%	150% up to $500
Ultimate Bet	30%	111% up to $1100
Cake Poker	33%	110% up to $600
PKR Poker	30%	100% up to $800
Paradise Poker	30%	200% up to €1,000
Players Only	33%	100% up to $650
Fortune Poker	30%	200% up to €1,000
Betfair	30%	$1500
Aced	30%	100% up to $500
Virgin Poker	30%	100% up to £300
Poker Heaven	30%	200% up to €1000
Poker Nordica	30%	100% up to $200
Carbon Poker	30%	150% up to $1000
Red Star Poker	33%	110% up to $600
True Poker	27%	100% up to $200
Action Poker	35%	100% up to $2500
Cellsino Poker	40%	500% up to $500
Minted Poker	40%	100% up to $400
Power Poker	33%	110% up to $600
Interpoker	30%	200% up to €1000
Doyles Room	33%	110% up to $600
Gutshot Poker	33%	110% up to $600
Full Tilt Poker	27%	100% up to $600
Fat Bet Poker	40%	1000% up to €500
NoiQ Poker	30%	100% up to €5000

* Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet (UB) ** May not be available to all players *** Poker Heaven, Fortune Poker, InterPoker, Paradise Poker