Quick post to an interesting post about blackjack and life that could just as easily apply to poker.
Novices will make correct decisions most of the time. About 80-90% of the time, novices will play their hands the same way an expert player would. But the house gains a big advantage on the 10-20% of decisions they don’t make correctly. That 10-20% makes all the difference in the world between winning and losing because it’s cumulative. How is this different from other parts of life? An extra 10% makes a big difference. Eat 10% less food, and you lose weight. Save 10% of your income, and you retire a millionaire. Spend 10% of your day on some key goal, and by the end of the year, you’ve written a book, started a business, or found a mate.
Novices miss golden opportunities. Novice blackjack players will almost invariably play their hands too conservatively. They’ll stand too often when they should hit, and they’ll fail to double down and split pairs as often as they should. They hesitate to hit 16 against a dealer’s 7 or to split a pair of 2s against a dealer’s 4. They give up a lot more to the house by playing defensively, trying not to bust. But expert players exploit every opportunity to maximize their wins, meaning that they’ll double and split far more often when the odds favor doing so. Expert players will bust more often, but they’ll also hit their big hands more often. You see a similar pattern in life too. High achievers will bust more often, while underachievers play too conservatively, afraid to take calculated risks for fear of losing what they have. In blackjack, it’s those splits and double down hands where you make your real money. Novice players think it’s the ten-ace blackjack hand that’s the best — the guaranteed win. Expert players know it’s those hands where you split pairs 4x and double down on each one and see the dealer bust, winning 8x your original bet (but also risking 8x) instead of the mere 1.5x you get from a made blackjack. The big wins come disguised as garbage hands, like a pair of 3s. So it is in life — real opportunities come disguised as problems.
Novices don’t put in the time to fully understand the game. Expert players understand the game inside and out because they’ve invested many long hours studying it. Experts work harder. Novices have a strong understanding of certain parts, but their knowledge is very fuzzy in other areas. They often get confused on how to handle situations that arise infrequently. But eventually those situations do arise, and that’s where novices lose. Novices can’t handle the exceptions as well as the experts. But aside from a lack of understanding, novices also have some false understanding. If you could play blackjack and be dealt an 18 every hand, would you do it? A novice will usually say yes, thinking 18 to be a pretty good hand because a dealer has to hit 19-21 to beat it. But an expert player knows that 18 will lose more often than it will win — if you have an 18 every hand, in the long run, you’ll lose money. Experts have a more accurate understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each hand than novices. It’s the same with life. Novices don’t take the time to master the basics, like goal-setting, time management, motivation, and self-discipline. They do OK most days, but whenever an exception occurs such as the loss of a job, they’re thrown completely out of whack, and it takes them a long time to recover. You can throw a bankruptcy or a divorce at certain people, and they recover quickly and then keep on going. But novices are more likely to allow temporary setbacks to drift into long-term ruin.
Experts are more disciplined. Novice players tend to play their hands inconsistently. When the same situation arises, they often make different decisions with no rhyme or reason. They exhibit poor discipline and will often drink alcohol while playing. Experts understand that you can make the correct decision and still lose, but they focus on making correct decisions, not on trying to force a particular outcome. Experts have the patience to know that making correct decisions is all it takes to win in the long run. You see this in real life too, don’t you? Achievers tend to be more consistent in making decisions and taking action; they focus their energy. Underachievers, however, waste their energy, never applying enough force in a consistent direction to bring about a breakthrough.
Private victory precedes public victory. Novices learn how to play in the casino. Experts learn how to play at home and then apply their knowledge in the casino. Experts spend a lot more time practicing, which takes tremendous patience. Their real victories are unseen. Talented people who perform in public have often spent many years honing their skills in private.