Over the last several years I’ve done several posts refuting the argument that online poker is rigged. In fact, I’ve gone as far as make fun of people who insist that online poker is rigged in several posts.
But in the end the biggest hurdle in arguing for the legitimacy of online poker is that it’s difficult to prove a negative. Just because there is no evidence that online poker isn’t rigged doesn’t mean that it isn’t rigged.
That got me thinking and so awhile back I began doing some research into whether or not it could be proved that online poker was rigged. Without trying to draw too much fanfare I began contacting experts in statistics and mathematics and asking them for help on devising a method that could definitively state whether or not a game was rigged.
Unfortunately, in all of our research we were unable to come up with a model that was 100% accurate. The best we could do was devise a method that would give us a probability for a game being rigged.
So I went back to the drawing board and attempted to put together a tool that would rank a room or a hand for it’s “riggedness.” The more likely it was to be rigged the higher the score. After consulting with the experts who helped me devise this model we all seemed to agree that anything from 80% certainty on up was very likely rigged.
The next step was to get a certifying agency to validate our results which took a lot of time but I was eventually able to do. With certification in hand I made the rounds at leading online poker rooms and pitched the idea of offering refunds if our tool identified a hand as potentially rigged. Unfortunately with new rooms springing up almost daily it doesn’t seem fair to say who said yes or who said no as omission or inclusion on any list could potentially be construed as an endorsement or condemnation.
So I took the model, some programming, and put together the tool that I’ve named the RT Hand Analyzer for Rigged Games. I’m making it available for free for the time being but I may charge for it at a later date if I find that people are using it successfully to obtain refunds. I mean, I did all the work. Why shouldn’t I get a little of the honey?
It’s still in beta stage but I invite you to give it a try and let me know your results.
photocred goes to laffy4k