I’ve written many times about various issues going on here in Thailand. The last several years have not been kind to the kingdom in terms of stability. When they’re not closing down airports they’re chasing ASEAN leaders from their hotel rooms. Red shirts (anti-government), yellow shirts (pro-government), whatever (everyone in between). There have been numerous rallies and such here in Bangkok and whenever people write to ask if it’s a total war zone I just laugh and say that they always do that stuff away from the tourist areas so you don’t even see it except for on the news.
Well, the red shirts brought their fight to me this weekend. To be more accurate they decided to stage a rally on my street. Since I am down the street from several major shopping complexes (Central World, Gaysorn Plaza, Amarin, and Siam Paragon) the red shirts figured that causing a little financial pinch by forcing these shopping centers to shut their doors fearing poor red-shirted farmers might start handling the Prada and Gucci products was in order.
Initial estimates are that shutting their doors will lead to about a 60 billion baht loss for merchants. That’s close to $2 billion USD so I have a feeling someone is inflating estimates a bit or someone was misquoted.
So, Saturday morning I woke up and my girlfriend came back from grabbing some noodles from a street vendor and said that the street was full of red shirts. I inhaled my noodles, grabbed my camera, and head out into the sea of red.
I was expecting what I had seen over the last several weeks. Most of the time the red shirts just parade through Bangkok and screw up traffic. Today they actually blockaded my street. They had their own security and there was no traffic running on Ratchadamri or on Phloen Chit, two fairly busy streets.
Though there were red shirts meandering around near my apartment I could tell that the real action was up the street. I walked up towards the Ratchadamri/Phloen Chit intersection and the crowds became more dense and the loudspeakers became louder.
Soon I was standing in a sea of red. As far up and down Phloen Chit all I could see was red. The streets had been closed and there was no traffic. An unusual sight considering this is usually a very busy intersection. It was rather strange to be able to just walk in the middle of such a major street. It sort of felt like a street fair.
They had erected a stage right dead in the center of the intersection and a speaker was whipping the crowd into a frenzy. The local press puts the number at around 10,000 people. I think that’s a fair count.
As I walked amongst the red shirts I took particular notice that there were hardly any farang (foreigners). I was one of just a few white faces in the sea of red shirts. Had I just made a horrible mistake?
I wasn’t sure what kind of reaction to expect from the crowd. Would they see me an intruder? Before the rallies began the local press made it sound like they were going to kill anybody who was not on their side. They warned of mass violence and possible actions against foreign interests. I happen to consider myself foreign and an interest so I was just a tad apprehensive.
I guess I shouldn’t have really worried. As I strolled around people smiled. They gave me thumbs ups, waves, offered me water, and many insisted that I take their picture. When I would whip out a little Thai on them they absolutely beamed with pride. Hardly the blood thirsty mob the local press had tried to scare everyone into thinking they were.
I think the funniest thing I saw was on Saturday, the first day of this weekend’s rallies. I was snapping some pics in front of Central World when I look up and see these two Japanese girls. Just the look on their face communicated that they had no clue what the hell was going on and were scared shitless. As soon as they saw me in the crowd they made a beeline to me and with map in hand asked if I know how to get to Siam Paragon. I wanted to laugh but decided to be nice. I told them how to get to Siam Paragon (not knowing myself that it was closed) and they disappeared.
I just couldn’t get this picture out of my head of two gals sitting there at breakfast all giddy thinking about all of the shopping they’re going to do in Bangkok and as they get near Gaysorn and Central World they’re saying to each other “Hey, is there a fair or something going on?” And then it slowly dawns on them that they’re in the middle of an anti-government protest.
After I got back home I downloaded the pics to my computer. I have Image Capture on my Mac set up to download the pics and then delete them off of the camera. After downloading I went to preview my pics but about 80% or so ended up being corrupted. F*ck!!!!!
So when I got up Sunday morning and heard the loudspeakers I got excited. I checked the Bangkok Post website and it seems they were supposed to break off their rally at 9pm Saturday night but refused and planned on going through Sunday. Wooot!
I grabbed my camera and headed down to the rally again. Most of these pics are from today’s shoot. I’m going to try to do a data recovery on the deleted pics on my camera’s memory card (I put in a new one for today so not to overwrite anything on the old one) and I might post those if I can salvage them but these are pretty decent and give a pretty good representation of what the rally was like.
Realistically I don’t believe Thaksin can return to Thailand. If he came back and did not serve his 2 year jail sentence or wasn’t muzzled the yellow shirts would be the ones out in the street.
I think many people in Thailand have been woken up to the fact that the poor are pissed off and Thaksin knew how to tap into that. These and previous protests have made people aware of this anger and they surely won’t ignore it going forward.
But amongst the red shirts there are those that simply want respect and those who actually support Thaksin. While Thaksin support is high it’s easy to defuse by paying attention to the poor regions of Thailand. When enough roads have been built and enough projects are started in the villages Thaksin will be easily forgotten.
Even now, his support is questionable. Many of the protesters are being paid 500 baht per day to come to these rallies. For someone who is unemployed 500 baht per day is 500 baht more than they were going to get so sitting around and pretending to support Thaksin while getting fed is a pretty good deal.
You can actually see it in the crowds. The closer to the stage the more fanatical the protesters. As you get farther and farther away from the stage it’s more like a party. You can tell that they’re just there for the free food and the cash.
Thaksin’s biggest enemy is himself. He constantly finds himself alienating supporters. For instance, his recent acceptance of a position of financial advisor to Cambodia’s PM was intended to put pressure on Thailand’s government by showing that he can be right next door in a country that has very volatile relations with Thailand. But one of the reasons it has volatile relations with Thailand is because of nationalistic feuds over borders and what temples belong to which country. So, in effect, he’s sided with what some Thais view as their enemy.
Also, he just said the dumbest things. For instance rumors started to fly when his face looked a little puffy in a video broadcast he made to his supporters. To quiet any rumors that he might be ill he told his mostly poor and often unemployed supporters:
“My health is fine. My weight went up about two kilogrammes after I visited Sweden and Russia because I enjoyed my food. I enjoy bread in Sweden, and Russian food and caviar. But I have checked my health in Russia. All indicators, such as uric acid, cholesterol and blood sugar, are fine.”
I’m not sure that announcing that you’re dining on caviar while your supporters bake in the hot sun at rallies is a smart move.
Personally, I think there are a few possible scenarios:
1. Thaksin’s support dwindles the longer he doesn’t get his way. Eventually his support base will be some hard-core followers but the average Thai working in the rice paddy will move on with their lives when the government starts funneling more money into the villages. He’ll remain as thorn in the government’s side as he stirs up trouble from time to time but his ability to cause any real threat will diminish over time.
2. Candidates with loyalties to Thaksin will win in the next election and will immediately start trying to change laws to bring Thaksin back. They will be met with resistance from the PAD (yellow shirts) and it will be the yellow shirts out in the street protesting or taking over the airports again. Since the military’s top brass don’t seem to like Thaksin there’s a potential for another coup.
3. Thaksin is eventually caught. Right now, he’s persona non grata in several countries. The UK, Germany, the UAE, and several others said they would honor Thailand’s request that he be arrested and extradited back to Thailand. Most countries value Thailand as a trading partner higher than they do any investment Thaksin can personally make in their country so sooner or later he’s going to step off the plane in the wrong country and will be nabbed.
Once arrested and sent back to Thailand to serve two years for selling his wife and housekeeper valuable land the government owned at ridiculously cheap prices he’ll have a very hard time keeping his movement going from behind prison walls.
I would imagine an initial huge uproar but the longer he sits behind bars the less he’ll be able to organize his supporters and eventually things will die down.
4. Thaksin is assassinated. He’s reportedly been behind assassination attempts against several anti-Thaksin people here in Thailand so I’m sure there are at least a few people who wouldn’t mind funding a hit man to take out Thaksin once and for all.
5. Thaksin goes off the deep end and looses most of his supporters. As you can see from scenarios 1 – 4, he’s playing a losing game. His best case scenario sets the stage for yet another coup. He’s come pretty close to challenging the monarchy in the past. In fact, he’s said in more than one interview words about the monarchy which he later had to eat and accuse the reporter of misquoting him.
Sooner or later his frustration might drive him to slip up and directly challenge or insult the monarchy and then he’s about as politically dead as one can be. The king is worshiped like a god in Thailand. If forced to choose sides between Thaksin and the king almost nobody would side with him.
So, no scenario really looks good for him. Just like his nickname in Thailand implies, Toxin, he’s damaged goods. There are already cracks in his red shirt movement. There are the hardliners who are loyal to Thaksin and willing to use any means necessary (including violence) to bring him back and there are those who realize that the greater good is served by advancing a political agenda that helps the poor Thai people which means possibly distancing themselves from Thaksin and working with the government.
I don’t think anybody knows how this will all play out but it’s certainly far from over.
Thaksin does have some massive support there. I was in Thailand during the original coup in Chiang Mai. It was a bit disconcerting to have the tanks in the street, but they generally ignored farangs.
Was there just a few weeks back at the end of February and the tensions were rising.
What do you think the end result might be?